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There’s no nuance in it: hotel prices are higher than ever before. Call it the K-shaped economy, call it inflation, but the rise in demand in premium luxury travel appears to be firmly here with no end in sight. With hotel prices so high, are you redeeming your points even with dynamic pricing at play?
Marriott Dynamic Pricing
To recap, Marriott no longer publishes a fixed award chart as of March 2022. That means hotel nights can cost any amount, fluctuating with the cash price, occupancy, or other factors. It’s worth noting that while it’s easy to spot the points cost for properties going up to 150,000+ Marriott points per night, we’ve seen cash rates rise significantly, and luxury travel post-pandemic has seen significant demand.
Now, cash prices have not seen the same percentage increase as points prices, so it is true that the cent-per-point value has gone down for many of Marriott’s luxury properties. However, if you stick to a redemption value of, say, 0.8¢ CAD per point, you’d still be coming out ahead in high season at aspirational properties like the St. Regis Red Sea, St. Regis Maldives, or Ritz-Carlton Reserve Mandapa.
Get 4CPP at the St. Regis Maldives
When Do You Redeem Points?
Most of us have a floor value at which we’ll redeem points. Obviously, we’re not going to earn 3+ CPP for most of our travels, so when is the right time to redeem points?
There are generally two philosophies in the hobby. The first is that points are for unlocking aspirational stays that you are unlikely to pay cash for otherwise. The second is that points are simply a way to reduce the cost of trips you were already planning to take anyway, especially if you acquired them at a low cost.
I started firmly in the first camp, but over time I’ve drifted more toward the second. Points constantly devalue, award charts disappear, and cash prices keep climbing. If I’m getting decent value, I’d usually rather redeem now than wait for some hypothetical perfect redemption later.
Technically, I Value Marriott Bonvoy at 0.8¢
Ironically, Marriott is one of the few programs where I still struggle psychologically with redeeming points, even when the math works out.
Take the Residence Inn by Marriott Toronto Downtown/Entertainment District on a Friday night this July: rates are $562 all-in or 55,000 Marriott points.
I don’t want to pay either $562 or 55,000 points
By my standard metric, this is a 1.02 CPP redemption, so I should redeem my points. However, I just really struggle with spending 55,000 Marriott points per night at a Residence Inn in downtown Toronto. In this scenario, I’m more likely to try to redeem my free night awards, consider Hyatt or other loyalty programs, try to find a cheap hotel and offset the cost with TD points, or simply not go on this trip at all (if it’s just for vacation).
Amex FHR / Chase The Edit
And I think this is why hotel conversations in the Miles & Points world have shifted so much toward Amex FHR, Chase The Edit, Peninsula PenClub, Rosewood Elite, and preferred partner programs in general. If we are paying astronomical prices, it “feels” better at a non-Marriott/Hilton/Hyatt hotel. A $100 dining credit, breakfast, and guaranteed late checkout make up for the lack of elite benefits. Many U.S. credit cards also offer hotel credits on premium cards that don’t require standard award availability.
At the same time, traditional hotel loyalty programs are becoming harder to justify for many non-aspirational stays. Hyatt’s latest (absolutely brutal) devaluation is a great example. In many cases, redeeming Chase Ultimate Rewards through Points Boost at up to 2 cents each now comes out ahead of transferring directly to Hyatt.
Takeaway
Hotel prices have climbed so aggressively over the past few years that points redemptions increasingly feel less like “outsized value” and more like damage control against absurd cash rates. Even with Marriott’s dynamic pricing eroding the cent per point value at many properties, redeeming points can still make sense simply because cash prices have climbed to astronomical highs.
At the same time, I think the psychology around hotel points is changing. More and more, I find myself saving points primarily for aspirational stays while finding more value in free night awards, Amex/Chase hotel credits, preferred partner rates, or fixed-value points (with no loyalty angle) for everything else. Sure, 55,000 Marriott points for a $562 Residence Inn technically clears my valuation threshold, but emotionally, it still feels difficult to justify.
Do you ever find yourself feeling this way when redeeming points for hotels?
